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Competition between the US and China in the Middle East and the Middle East's Response for Multipolar Policy and Implications

2023.02.22 Sang-Hyun Seo

Sang-Hyun Seo

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#geopolitics #national security #policy #US-China conflict
The Middle East, which had been overlooked since the Russia-Ukraine war, is once again gaining attention. This is due to the rising geopolitical importance of the Middle East following the war, leading to intensified competition between the US and China in the region. Middle Eastern countries are also responding by leveraging their geopolitical significance to pursue policy diversification for security and economic gains. Let's delve into recent US-China competition in the Middle East and the response strategies of Middle Eastern countries utilizing it.

Executive Summary

  • With the rise of China's international influence, the US is experiencing a reduction in its influence in the Middle East, while China is expanding its influence, leading to changes in the influence dynamics between the two countries.

    • To counter China's expanding influence, the US is shifting its focus on the Middle East strategy assets to the "Indo-Pacific region," resulting in a reduction of its influence in the Middle East.

    • China is expanding its economic cooperation with the Middle East as the region's largest trading partner and energy importer.

    • Following the heightened geopolitical importance of the Middle East due to the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, the US is reassessing its Middle East policy.

  • The US is emphasizing military cooperation to maintain energy security and regional stability in the Middle East.

    • Particularly, to counter China's growing influence in the Middle East and its coercive actions regarding Iran's nuclear development, the US maintains military bases in key countries such as Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia.

    • Additionally, in response to China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and economic cooperation goals, Israel, India, UAE, and the US have formed the "Middle East Quad" known as "I2U2.

    • In July 2022, following President Biden's visit to the Middle East, the United States is actively seeking to improve its strained relationships with Israel and Saudi Arabia.

  • China prioritizes its energy security and is expanding its political and economic influence in the Middle East.

    • By capitalizing on the withdrawal of the US from Iraq and Afghanistan and the deterioration of relations with pro-US countries like Saudi Arabia, China is expanding its influence.

    • As the Middle East's largest trading partner, China's trade volume with GCC+Iran reached $248 billion in 2021, four times higher than that of the US.

    • Moreover, the Middle East is emerging as a key hub connecting Europe and Africa via the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and as a major destination for investments.

  • The Middle East is strengthening cooperation with Asia, including China, India, and South Korea, shifting away from its traditional reliance on the US.

    • Key drivers of the Middle East's multipolar policy include concerns over security vulnerabilities due to over-reliance on the US and the need to diversify energy-dependent economies.

    • Additionally, there are opportunities for expanding industrial cooperation between Korea and the Middle East as part of the Middle East countries' focus on Asia.

  • As Middle Eastern countries prioritize their policies towards Asia, there are opportunities for expanding industrial cooperation between South Korea and the Middle East.

    • Since 2010, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have strengthened economic cooperation with South Korea as part of their industrial diversification efforts.

    • There are opportunities for participation in projects such as smart infrastructure (such as NEOM City) and hydrogen in Saudi Arabia, and hydrogen, healthcare (hospital construction), and smart farms in the UAE.

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