○ Global steel demand is projected to rebound from the declines of the past two years, increasing by 0.3% year-on-year in 2026, as rebounds in advanced economies and growth in emerging markets counterbalance downward pressures stemming from the Middle East conflict.

• According to worldsteel's April forecast, global steel demand will escape the negative growth trend of the past two years in 2026 and demonstrate a modest recovery in the 2% range in 2027.

• Meanwhile, worldsteel stated that if prolonged conflicts in the Middle East sustain high energy costs, forecasts will need to be revised downward.

○ [China] Contraction continues in 2026, marking six consecutive years of negative growth.

• Due to the prolonged construction slump, construction-related steel demand has hit structural growth limits. In contrast, manufacturing sectors such as automotive and machinery continue to grow, driving demand for high-grade steel products.

• In 2025, steel demand plunged 7.1%—a significant downward revision from the initial projection (+2.0%)—recording around 800 Mt, and is forecast to hover around 780 Mt across 2026–2027.

○ [India] Robust domestic steel demand acts as a resilience buffer against geopolitical uncertainties and global export volatility, underpinning global steel demand.

• Supported by economic growth over 7% and steady infrastructure investment, Indian steel demand is projected to sustain high growth of the 7–9% range in 2026–2027.

○ [Emerging Markets] Limited capacity to offset global demand weakness, as the overall increase remains modest due to contractions in the MENA region and slowing growth across ASEAN in 2026.

• ASEAN-5 demand will rise modestly by only 1–2% due to base effects from the sharp demand increase in the previous year, while MENA faces concerns of a 4.5% contraction driven by the economic and industrial fallout from the Middle East conflict.

○ [Advanced Economies] While U.S. and European demand show modest growth, downward revisions reflect weakening recovery momentum; Japan expects a 60-year low, with advanced economies collectively remaining below pre-pandemic levels.

• In 2026, U.S. demand is forecast to grow modestly by 1.7% amid rising raw material prices and the Middle East conflict, while EU+UK demand is expected to increase by just 1.3% due to manufacturing slowdowns triggered by high oil prices.

• Japanese demand is projected to decline for the fifth consecutive year to 47.9 Mt, reaching its lowest level in 60 years.

○ [South Korea] Due to entrenched demand weakness driven by a persistent construction slump and delayed manufacturing recovery, steel demand is unlikely to recover to the 45 Mt-level in 2026–2027.

• Nonetheless, despite sluggish recovery in downstream industries, a technical rebound is expected in 2026 due to base effects following the preceding demand cliff.