On the CoverIndustrialization, GVC, and Steel Demand
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This article examines the industrialization prospects of developing countries and their implication for steel demand in light of the GVC evolution. There are some reasons to doubt that the traditional idea about industrialization and its impact on steel demand might have been altered due to a global value chain (GVC) in the manufacturing sector. Being incorporated into a global supply chain paves the way for a fast-track industrialization for developing economies with lower domestic capital requirements. However, in the case of industrialization through GVC, industrial development might be limited to a narrow range of sectors that are integrated into GVC and spillover into other industries is likely to be limited. Premature deindustrialization is a phenomenon, in which developing countries have experienced a decreasing share of manufacturing in terms of either employment or GDP much before reaching the living standards of developed countries. It seems that only rather scarce opportunities are left for developing countries to achieve a full-scale industrialization with own supply chains. Therefore steel demand potential for late-developing countries will be limited compared to early industrializers.